Regarding election

What i think is happening is that the Brexit vote is fresh on speculators minds, the polls were dead even before the vote but few actually believed the exits would win. Perhaps we are seeing something similar with us elections right now, meaning (almost) all predictions and polls point to Clinton (Stay), but a surprise like Trump (Exit) weighs on peoples minds.

Here are some of the good research and analysis done
FiveThirtyEight Elections
NY Times 2016 Election

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