Before i begin, let me say it out that i have a bearish bias, its a costly state of mind and one that i would happily exchange for the opposite if there was a way to do it. They say that denial is the first sign of a problem, i guess by trying to short this thing i have been in a serious denial. So in that sense im guilty but at least i know it, just cant act like it. After spendig the weekend staring at vix, internals and most else from every angle and timeframe that i could muster, i am rather convinced that the meltup is just at its halfway point, if that, and theres so much room to go. The bearish brew cooking up up here is too sweet to pass for the market, it will squeeze more of that sweet juice out of it until its had enough. Vix especially is playing out a low volatility pattern as it has before and the spike/pullback we are looking for aint coming until 3-6 months. VIX has dropped at a faster pace during the past few months than it has in 10 years and it is just about to enter the seesawing region of 15 where it can stay for a long time. Sure there’ll be some minor pullback soon but it will be just a tease. The central banks are doing their thing, jacking up until its enough, and that level is far higher than we are today
Consider whats at stake in europe: printing money is an easy job compared to beating up protesters, cleaning graffiti and putting out burning cars.
I am talking about 6month timeframe here so bare with me. Everybody, or rather the few people i know are making money and are as long as they can be without spending any time with charts or anything other than bloomberg headlines – that is rather sad considering i spend so much time reading, charting, then reading some more and just thinking over and over about all of this at every moment and Still i dont have the courage to close my eyes, go long and go home.
A friend of mine recently said something that really describes this well:
“Markets will do the expected in the most unexpected way possible “