I think theres going to be a usual zigzag move before a meaningful retrace can start. A slight dip next week, rally in the beginning of january and then correct the long up move. Im looking for 1300 ish as a possible target for the january rally. As the markets main aim is to fool as many people as possible there is a possibility that if we dip next week we continue dropping into january without a bounce, well see. Im leaning towards the zigzag to fool both bears and bulls before the drop. After that if there are no changes in the fed/policy front i will be looking to go long again. Vix, sentiment etc. are at levels that have been prevously very eventful.
Heres what last years dec/jan was like:
and heres a prs channel and longer term chart
and heres the usual tin foil stuff
Chart from http://www.sentimentrader.com